In kasta oo qeybtii labaad ee 2021, qaar ka mid ah shirkadaha baabuurta ayaa tilmaamay in dhibaatada chip yaraanta ee 2022 la wanaajin doono, laakiin OEM-yadu waxay kordhiyeen wax iibsiga iyo maskaxda ciyaarta midba midka kale, oo ay weheliso sahayda baaluq-soo-saarka chip gawaadhida Ganacsiyadu waxay wali ku jiraan marxaladda ballaarinta awoodda wax-soo-saarka, iyo suuqa caalamiga ah ee hadda jira ayaa weli si weyn u saameeyay la'aanta xudunta.
Isla mar ahaantaana, iyada oo la dardargeliyay isbeddelka warshadaha baabuurta ee dhinaca korantada iyo sirdoonka, silsiladda warshadaha ee sahayda chip waxay sidoo kale mari doontaa isbeddello mug leh.
1. Xanuunka MCU ee hoos yimaada xudunta la'aanta
Hadda dib loo eego yaraanta koofiyadaha ee bilaabmay dhammaadkii 2020, dillaaca shaki la'aan waa sababta ugu weyn ee isu dheelitir la'aanta u dhaxaysa sahayda iyo baahida jajabyada baabuurta. In kasta oo falanqayn adag oo ku saabsan qaab dhismeedka codsiga ee chips-yada caalamiga ah ee MCU (microcontroller) ay muujinayso in laga bilaabo 2019 ilaa 2020, qaybinta MCU-yada codsiyada elektiroonigga ah waxay ku fadhiisan doontaa 33% suuqa dalabka hoose, laakiin marka la barbar dhigo xafiiska khadka tooska ah ee fog fog illaa kor. Naqshadayaasha chip-ka ayaa ka walaacsan, shirkadaha wax soo saara iyo baakadaha iyo tijaabinta waxaa si weyn u saameeyay arrimo ay ka mid yihiin xiritaanka cudurka.
Dhirta wax soo saarka ee Chip-ka ee ka tirsan warshadaha xoogga leh waxay la kulmi doonaan shaqaale yaraan xoog leh iyo dakhli xumo 2020. Ka dib markii naqshadeynta chip-ka sare loo beddelay baahida shirkadaha baabuurta, ma aysan awoodin inay si buuxda u jadwal u sameyso wax soo saarka, taas oo adkeyneysa. si chips-yada loo gaarsiiyo si buuxda. Gacanta warshadda baabuurta, xaaladda awoodda wax-soo-saarka baabuurta oo aan ku filnayn ayaa u muuqata.
Bishii Agoosto ee sannadkii hore, STMicroelectronics 'Muar warshad ku taal Muar, Malaysia ayaa lagu qasbay inay xirto qaar ka mid ah warshadaha sababtoo ah saameynta cudurka faafa ee taajka cusub, xiritaanka ayaa si toos ah u horseeday sahayda chips ee Bosch ESP/IPB, VCU, TCU iyo nidaamyada kale oo ku jira xaalad kala go'a sahayda muddo dheer.
Intaa waxaa dheer, sanadka 2021, masiibooyinka dabiiciga ah ee la socda sida dhulgariirrada iyo dabka ayaa sidoo kale sababi doona qaar ka mid ah soosaarayaasha inay awoodi waayaan inay soo saaraan muddada gaaban. Bishii Febraayo ee sannadkii hore, dhulgariirku wuxuu waxyeello ba'an u geystay Japan Renesas Electronics, oo ka mid ah alaabada ugu weyn adduunka.
Qiimaynta khaldan ee baahida loo qabo jajabyada baabuurta ee shirkadaha baabuurta, oo ay weheliso xaqiiqda ah in dharka sare ee kor u kaca ay u beddeleen awoodda wax soo saarka ee chips-yada baabuurta si loo dammaanad qaado qiimaha alaabta, waxay keentay MCU iyo CIS oo leh isku dhafka ugu sarreeya ee u dhexeeya jajabyada baabuurta iyo alaabta elektiroonigga ah ee caadiga ah. (Dareenka sawirka CMOS) ayaa ku jira gabaabsi daran.
Marka la eego dhinaca farsamada, waxaa jira ugu yaraan 40 nooc oo ah qalabka caadiga ah ee semiconductor baabuurta, wadarta tirada baaskiilada la isticmaalayna waa 500-600, kuwaas oo u badan MCU, semiconductors (IGBT, MOSFET, iwm.), dareemayaasha iyo noocyo kala duwan. qalabka analogga ah. Gawaadhida iswada leh sidoo kale Alaabooyin taxane ah sida chips-ka caawiyayaasha ADAS, CIS, soo-saareyaasha AI, lidars, raadaarada millimeter-ka iyo MEMS ayaa la isticmaali doonaa.
Marka loo eego tirada baahida baabuurta, dhibaatada ugu weyn ee dhibaatadan aasaasiga ah ayaa ah in baabuurka dhaqameed uu u baahan yahay in ka badan 70 chips MCU, iyo MCU-ga baabuurta waa ESP (Nidaamka Barnaamijka Xasiloonida Elektrooniga ah) iyo ECU (Qaybaha ugu muhiimsan ee qalabka kontoroolka muhiimka ah ee baabuurta). ). Qaadashada sababta ugu weyn ee hoos u dhaca Haval H6 ay bixisay Great Wall marar badan tan iyo sannadkii hore tusaale ahaan, Great Wall ayaa sheegay in hoos u dhaca iibka halista ah ee H6 bilo badan ay sabab u tahay sahayda ku filan ee Bosch ESP ee ay isticmaashay. Bisad cad oo hore loo jeclaa Euler Black Cat iyo White Cat ayaa sidoo kale ku dhawaaqday hakinta ku meel gaadhka ah ee wax soo saarka bishii March ee sanadkan sababo la xidhiidha arrimo ay ka mid yihiin dhimista saadka ESP iyo korodhka qiimaha jaban.
Waa wax laga xishoodo, in kasta oo warshadaha Chip auto ay dhisayaan oo awood u siinayaan khadadka wax soo saarka wafer cusub 2021, oo ay isku dayayaan in ay u wareejiyaan geeddi-socodka chips auto-soo-saarka hore iyo khadka cusub ee 12-inch mustaqbalka, si loo kordhiyo awoodda wax soo saarka iyo Si kastaba ha ahaatee, wareegga gaarsiinta ee qalabka semiconductor inta badan waa in ka badan nus sano ah. Intaa waxaa dheer, waxay qaadataa waqti dheer hagaajinta khadka wax soo saarka, xaqiijinta alaabta iyo hagaajinta awoodda wax soo saarka, taas oo ka dhigaysa awoodda wax soo saarka cusub inay noqoto mid waxtar leh 2023-2024. .
Waxaa xusid mudan in inkastoo cadaadisku uu socday muddo dheer, haddana shirkadaha baabuurta ayaa weli rajo ka qaba suuqa. Iyo awoodda wax-soo-saarka chip-ka cusub ayaa loogu talagalay in lagu xalliyo dhibaatada awoodda wax-soo-saarka chip ee ugu weyn mustaqbalka.
2. Goob dagaal oo cusub oo ay hoos yimaadaan sirdoonka koronto
Si kastaba ha noqotee, warshadaha baabuurta, xallinta xiisadda hadda jirta waxay xallin kartaa oo keliya baahida degdegga ah ee saadka suuqa ee hadda jira iyo baahida asymmetry. Marka la eego isbeddelka warshadaha korantada iyo kuwa caqliga leh, cadaadiska sahayda ee jajabyada baabuurta ayaa si aad ah u kordhi doona mustaqbalka.
Iyada oo ay kordheyso baahida loo qabo gaadiidka isku dhafan ee kontoroolka korantada, iyo xilliga FOTA ee cusboonaysiinta iyo wadista tooska ah, tirada jajabyada baabuurta tamarta cusub ayaa laga dalacsiiyay 500-600 xilligii baabuurta shidaalka ilaa 1,000 ilaa 1,200. Tirada noocyada ayaa sidoo kale kor u kacday 40 ilaa 150.
Khubarada qaar ka mid ah warshadaha baabuurta ayaa sheegay in berrinkii baabuurta korantada smart-dhamaadka sare mustaqbalka, tirada chips hal baabuur kordhin doonaa dhowr jeer in ka badan 3,000 oo gogo ', iyo saamiga semiconductors baabuurta ee qiimaha alaabta Baabuurka oo dhan waxa uu ka kordhi doonaa 4% 2019 ilaa 12 sanadka 2025.%,waxana laga yaabaa in uu kordho 20% marka la gaadho 2030 waxay ka tarjumaysaa kor u kaca degdega ah ee farsamada adag iyo qiimaha chips ee looga baahan yahay baabuurta.
Si ka duwan OEM-yada dhaqameed, halkaas oo 70% chips-yada gawaarida shidaalka ay yihiin 40-45nm iyo 25% ay yihiin jajabyo-spec hoose oo ka sarreeya 45nm, saamiga chips ee habka 40-45nm ee baabuurta caadiga ah iyo kuwa sare ee korantada ee suuqa ayaa leh. ayaa hoos ugu dhacay 25%. 45%, halka saamiga chips ee ka sarreeya habka 45nm uu yahay kaliya 5%. Marka laga eego dhinaca farsamada, chips-socodka-dhamaadka sare ee qaan-gaadhka ah ee ka hooseeya 40nm iyo 10nm oo horumarsan iyo 7nm chips-ka ayaa shaki la'aan ah goobo cusub oo tartan ah xilliga cusub ee warshadaha baabuurta.
Marka loo eego warbixin sahamin ah oo ay soo saartay Hushan Capital sanadka 2019, saamiga koronto-dhaliyaha guud ee gaariga ayaa si degdeg ah uga kordhay 21% xilligii baabuurta shidaalka ilaa 55%, halka chips-yada MCU ay hoos uga dhaceen 23% ilaa 11%.
Si kastaba ha ahaatee, balaadhinta awoodda wax-soo-saarka chip-ka ee ay shaaca ka qaadeen warshado kala duwan ayaa weli inta badan ku xaddidan chip-yada caadiga ah ee MCU-da ee hadda ka mas'uulka ah matoorka/khassis/maamulka jirka.
Baabuurta caqliga korantada leh, Chips AI oo mas'uul ka ah aragtida wadista iskeed u madaxbannaan iyo isku-dhafka; Qaybaha korantada sida IGBT ( transistor gate dual transistor oo dahaaran) oo masuul ka ah beddelka tamarta; chips dareemayaasha loogu talagalay la socodka radar wadista iskeed ayaa si weyn u kordhay baahida. Waxay u badan tahay inay noqoto wareeg cusub oo ah dhibaatooyinka "la'aanta asaasiga ah" ee shirkadaha baabuurta ay la kulmi doonaan marxaladda xigta.
Si kastaba ha noqotee, marxaladda cusub, waxa caqabad ku ah shirkadaha baabuurta ma noqon karaan dhibaatada awoodda wax-soo-saarka ee ay farageliyaan arrimo dibadda ah, laakiin "qoorta ku dheggan" ee chip-ka ayaa xaddiday dhinaca farsamada.
Qaadashada baahida loo qabo chips AI oo ay keentay sirdoon tusaale ahaan, mugga xisaabinta ee software wadista iskeed u madaxbannaan ayaa mar hore gaadhay heerka TPS-ta laba-god ah (trillion hawlgallada ilbiriqsi), iyo awoodda xisaabinta ee baabuurta dhaqameed ee MCU-yada si dhib leh ayay u buuxin karaan shuruudaha xisaabinta. baabuurta iskood u madax bannaan. Chips AI sida GPU-yada, FPGAs, iyo ASICs ayaa soo galay suuqa baabuurta.
Qaybtii hore ee sannadkii hore, Horizon waxay si rasmi ah u shaacisay in jiilka saddexaad ee badeecada gaadhiga, ee Journey 5 chips, si rasmi ah loo sii daayay. Marka loo eego xogta rasmiga ah, Chips-yada taxanaha ah ee Journey 5 waxay leeyihiin awood xisaabeed oo ah 96TOPS, isticmaalka tamarta 20W, iyo saamiga waxtarka tamarta ee 4.8TOPS/W. . Marka la barbar dhigo tikniyoolajiyadda habka 16nm ee FSD (shaqada wadista si buuxda u madaxbannaan) chip ay sii daysay Tesla sanadka 2019, cabbirrada hal chip oo leh awood xisaabinta 72TOPS, isticmaalka awoodda 36W iyo saamiga hufnaanta tamarta ee 2TOPS/W ayaa leh si weyn ayaa loo hagaajiyay. Guulahan ayaa sidoo kale ku guuleystey raallinimada iyo iskaashiga shirkado badan oo baabuurta sida SAIC, BYD, Great Wall Motor, Chery, iyo Ideal.
Sirdoonku hagayay, ka-hortagga warshaduhu aad buu u degdegay. Laga bilaabo Tesla's FSD, horumarinta chips kantaroolka AI ee ugu weyn waa sida furitaanka sanduuqa Pandora. Wax yar ka dib Safarka 5, NVIDIA waxay si dhakhso ah u soo saartay Chip-ka Orin kaas oo noqon doona hal-chip. Awoodda xisaabinta ayaa kordhay ilaa 254TOPS. Marka la eego kaydadka farsamada, Nvidia xitaa waxay hore u eegtay Chip Atlan SoC oo leh hal awood xisaabeed ilaa 1000TOPS dadweynaha sannadkii hore. Waqtigan xaadirka ah, NVIDIA waxay si adag u haysataa booska monopoly ee suuqa GPU ee jajabyada kontoroolka baabuurta, iyadoo ilaalinaysa saamiga suuqa ee 70% sanadka oo dhan.
In kasta oo gelitaanka shirkadda weyn ee taleefanka gacanta ee Huawei ee warshadaha baabuurta ay dejisay hirarka tartanka ee warshadaha gawaarida, waxaa si fiican loo og yahay in faragelinta arrimaha dibadda, Huawei uu leeyahay khibrad naqshadeed qani ah oo ku saabsan nidaamka 7nm SoC, laakiin ma awoodo. caawin saarayaasha sare chip. kor u qaadida suuqa.
Hay'adaha cilmi-baaristu waxay qiyaasaan in qiimaha AI chip baaskiilada uu si degdeg ah uga kacayo US$100 sanadka 2019 ilaa US$1,000+ marka la gaaro 2025; Isla mar ahaantaana, suuqa baabuurta AI chip-ka gudaha ayaa sidoo kale ka kordhin doona US$900 milyan 2019 ilaa 91 sanadka 2025. Boqol milyan oo doolarka Mareykanka ah. Kobaca degdega ah ee baahida suuqa iyo kelinimada tignoolajiyada ee chips-yada heerka sare ah ayaa shaki la'aan ka dhigi doona horumarka caqliga leh mustaqbalka ee shirkadaha baabuurta xitaa mid aad u adag.
Si la mid ah baahida suuqa chip AI, IGBT, oo ah qayb muhiim ah oo semiconductor ah (oo ay ku jiraan chips, substrates insulating, terminal iyo agabyo kale) ee gaariga tamarta cusub oo leh qiime dhan 8-10%, sidoo kale wuxuu leeyahay saameyn qoto dheer oo ku saabsan horumarinta mustaqbalka ee warshadaha baabuurta. In kasta oo shirkadaha gudaha sida BYD, Star Semiconductor, iyo Silan Microelectronics ay bilaabeen in ay keenaan IGBT-yada shirkadaha baabuurta ee wadaniga ah, hadda, awoodda wax-soo-saarka IGBT ee shirkadaha aan kor ku soo sheegnay ayaa weli xaddidan miisaanka shirkadaha, taas oo adkeyneysa daboolo ilaha tamarta cusub ee gudaha ee degdega u koraya. kobaca suuqa.
Akhbaarta wanaagsan ayaa ah in wejiga marxaladda xigta ee SiC ay ku beddesho IGBTs, shirkadaha Shiinaha aysan ka fogeyn qaabka, iyo ballaarinta naqshadeynta SiC iyo awoodaha wax soo saarka ee ku salaysan awoodaha IGBT R & D sida ugu dhakhsaha badan ayaa la filayaa inay caawiyaan shirkadaha baabuurta iyo tignoolajiyada. Soo-saareyaashu waxay helayaan gees ka mid ah marxaladda xiga ee tartanka.
3. Yunyi Semiconductor, wax soo saarka garaadka asaasiga ah
Isagoo wajahaya yaraanta chips ee warshadaha baabuurta, Yunyi waxaa ka go'an inuu xalliyo dhibaatada sahayda agabka semiconductor ee macaamiisha warshadaha baabuurta. Haddii aad rabto inaad wax ka ogaato waxyaabaha ku saabsan qalabka Semiconductor ee Yunyi oo aad waydiiso, fadlan guji xidhiidhka:https://www.yunyi-china.net/semiconductor/.
Waqtiga boostada: Mar-25-2022